20 janeiro 2012

O mundo que conhecemos em breve não existirá mais

A rapidez e profundidade das mudanças mundiais é tal que se pode dizer que um ciclo de mudanças dessa magnitude não ocorria desde 1989-1991.

Como lembra a consultoria em prospectiva Stratfor, naqueles três anos, o muro de Berlim caiu, a União Soviética acabou, o milagre japonês se esgotou, o tratado de Maastricht foi assinado e a China consolidou, com a mão pesada de seu partido único, a rota que a colocaria como a potência de crescimento mais exuberante dos dias atuais. Mais importante, os componentes do sistema internacional mudaram significativamente.

Agora, inicia-se um novo ciclo de mudanças aceleradas. Nesses poucos anos que se passaram, a União Europeia deixou de funcionar e foi posta em xeque. A China encara uma recessão mundial e vê uma intensiificação de suas tensões latentes.

As regras de como o mundo funciona agora são outras e tendem a mudar ainda mais. Tudo depende do que acontecerá em 2012.


Stratfor Annual Forecast 2012

There are periods when the international system undergoes radical shifts in a short time. The last such period was 1989-1991. During that time, the Soviet empire collapsed. The Japanese economic miracle ended. The Maastricht Treaty creating contemporary Europe was signed. Tiananmen Square defined China as a market economy dominated by an unchallenged Communist Party, and so on. Fundamental components of the international system shifted radically, changing the rules for the next 20 years.

We are in a similar cycle, one that began in 2008 and is still playing out. In this period, the European Union has stopped functioning as it did five years ago and has yet to see its new form defined. China has moved into a difficult social and economic phase, with the global recession severely affecting its export-oriented economy and its products increasingly uncompetitive due to inflation. The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq has created opportunities for an Iranian assertion of power that could change the balance of power in the region. The simultaneous shifts in Europe, China and the Middle East open the door to a new international framework replacing the one created in 1989-1991.

Our forecast for 2012 is framed by the idea that we are in the midst of what we might call a generational shift in the way the world works. The processes are still under way, and we will therefore have to consider the future of Europe, China and the Middle East in some detail before drawing a conclusion. The 2012 forecast is unique in that it is not a forecast for one year in a succession of years, all basically framed by the same realities. Rather, it is a year in which the individual forecasts point to a new generational reality and a redefinition of how the world works.


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